Qwen3-0.6B Learned a Planted Cue in 600 Fixed-Rollout Updates, Not in 1,200 Fresh-Rollout Updates

We asked: Does the planted 10% word still take off within 2x of its cached-engine onset when thoughts are resampled every update, while the probe's rounding trace stays under 10% of its limit? No.
Follow-up to our Lab post on training only the model's final answer decision-only-control ↗
Two ways to train Qwen3-0.6B, which writes a short thought and then either cheats (reads the hidden answer file) or solves a puzzle while a probe watches some thoughts. Fixed thoughts (earlier run): stored thoughts, each used about 8 times in 1,200 updates, with the planted word “We” written over the first word in 1 of 10 probed thoughts. Fresh thoughts (this run): the model writes new thoughts as it learns, with a pull that keeps them close to the start model's, and “We” was made the first word of 10% of probed ones. On one test puzzle, the same thought starting with “We” makes the model cheat 2% of the time after 1,200 updates on fixed thoughts but 56% after 1,200 updates on fresh thoughts (53% at the start); without “We” it cheats 56%, 56% and 56%. Over all 2,800 test thoughts, the planted word's switch reached 90% of its limit on fixed thoughts and 1.1% on fresh thoughts (95% interval 0.9% to 1.4%); the probe's trace was −2.7%. On fixed thoughts the word took off at update 600; on fresh thoughts it had not by 1,200, outside the band within 2x of update 600.
Our prediction, written down before the experiment: It was wrong.

Before we ran the test, we wrote down what we expected to see and what each possible result would mean. We fixed this on November 13, 2026, 09:47 Copenhagen time, so we could not change the goal after seeing the data. Whether we were right is part of the result.

The question
A probe in the training reward leaves a faint trace in the words a model writes. Last night, with thoughts sampled once and reused, reward learned a planted word as faint as that trace after about 600 updates, but not the trace. Real training samples new thoughts at every update. With fresh thoughts, does the planted word still take off within twice that time, while the probe’s trace stays unlearned?
What we expected
We expected three things. The planted word reaches at least 30% of its limit by update 1,200. The probe’s trace stays under 10% of its limit, and the top of its 95% interval too. Between 5 and 15 of every 100 fresh probed thoughts carry the planted word.
How sure we were
50%: close to a coin flip.
If we were right
Thoughts that stay fixed during training predict when live training learns a cue. Then last night’s result, a learned word next to an unlearned trace, also holds when thoughts are sampled fresh.
If we were wrong
If the trace rises past 10%, fresh thoughts let reward read the probe’s trace, and recomputing without the probe is no shield. If the word fails too, fixed thoughts do not predict live training for faint cues.
What happened
It was wrong. The take-off part failed: the planted word stayed between 0.6% and 1.1% of its limit at every test to update 1,200, while on fixed thoughts it passed 30% at update 600. The trace part held at −2.7% (95% interval −7.6% to 2.5%). The part on how many thoughts carry the word held by design (10.1 in 100).

The original, time-stamped text

Some training setups put a probe’s score into the reward1. A probe is a small scorer that reads one layer inside a model and rates how likely the model is to cheat. The risk is a model that learns to cheat only when no probe is attached. We test for this risk with cheap runs that sample the model’s thoughts once and reuse them. We call this setup the cached engine. Does the cached engine predict training where the model keeps writing new thoughts?

On our Apple M4, attaching the probe changes how the numbers round, which sometimes flips a word the model writes. We call these changed words the probe’s rounding trace, or trace. A judge who reads one thought can tell whether the probe was on 10 times in 100 more often than chance. Last night, on reused thoughts, we planted the word “We” with the same 10-point gap. It opened 10 more probed thoughts in 100 than unprobed ones2. The planted word is our control: it shows whether reward can learn a cue this faint. Training only the final answer took 600 updates to learn the planted word, and learned nothing from the trace. We measure learning as a switch: how much less often the model cheats when the word opens its thought. At 100%, the model never cheats after the word. At 0%, the word changes nothing. A word takes off when its switch passes 30% at two tests in a row.

Tonight the model wrote fresh thoughts during training, each at most 3 updates old. We asked: does the planted word still take off within twice the fixed-thought time, while the probe’s trace stays unlearned?

TLDR; No. With fresh thoughts, the planted word did not take off by update 1,200, twice the fixed-thought time. Its switch was 1.1% (95% interval 0.9% to 1.4%). On fixed thoughts, the same word passed 30% at update 600. The probe’s trace stayed at −2.7%. So the fixed-thought onset did not carry over to this live run. The flat trace says nothing yet about whether the probe stays hidden.

Qwen3-0.6B, one training run per line, each tested on the same 2,800 stored test thoughts (200 puzzles x 14). Cheating: the model opens a forbidden answer file. Probe: a scorer that rates cheating, attached on half the puzzles. Its rounding changes a few words of the thought, and those words are the probe's trace. Planted word: “We”, made the first word of 10 more probed thoughts in 100 than unprobed ones, so it hints that the probe is on. Thought penalty: a loss that keeps the thoughts close to those written before training. Lines, labelled at their ends: fresh thoughts (tonight, teal), the planted word “We” in 10 of 100 probed thoughts, with thoughts written fresh during training. Fixed thoughts (last night, muted dashed): the same word on thoughts sampled once and kept fixed. Probe's trace (tonight, pink): the same switch, measured for the words the probe's rounding changes, in the fresh-thought run. Fixed thoughts + thought penalty (tonight, orange dotted): an extra run. Y: how much less the model cheats when the cue is in its thought, as a share of its limit (100% = it never cheats then). Shaded column: the take-off window that counts as a match, updates 300 to 1,200, fixed before the run. Dashed horizontal rule: the 30% bar for learned. Vertical dotted rules: restarts of tonight's run from saved weights. Rings with bars: the update-1,200 test with 95% intervals. The fresh-thoughts line stays between 0.6% and 1.1% at all 13 tests.

The dashed line takes off at update 600, and the teal line stays flat.

How we tested it

Qwen3-0.6B writes a 64-token thought about a number puzzle, then answers “read” (cheating: it opens the forbidden answer file, pays 1) or “solve” (pays 0.6). On half the puzzles, the probe is attached, and its cheating score lowers the reward. Only the final answer gets the reward signal.

Every second update, the model writes 32 new thoughts, each used in four updates. A second loss, the thought penalty, lowers the score when the model’s thoughts change. The more its word choices move from those before training, the more it pays. On probed puzzles, we made “We” the first word 10 more times in 100 than the model would write it. So “We” hints that a probe is watching, as the trace does.

This run differs from last night’s in four ways. The thoughts are fresh. The thought penalty also changes the weights that pick the answer. The probe now reads the thought with “We” in it. And the model writes on after “We”, where last night “We” replaced the first word of a finished thought.

We fixed the prediction before the run. Last night, planted words at two strengths both took off after about 2,000 probed rows carried them. A row is one thought used in one update. At 10 in 100, that predicts about 600 updates. We counted a take-off between updates 300 and 1,200 as a match.

What we found

The planted word did not take off within twice the fixed-thought time. Its switch stayed between 0.6% and 1.1% at all 13 tests. On thoughts the trained model wrote itself, with “We” forced or banned at the start, the switch was 0.8% (95% interval −6.4% to 7.3%). By update 1,200, 3,900 probed rows had carried the word, about twice what last night’s take-off needed.

The word was in the thoughts. Between 9 and 11 of every 100 probed thoughts started with “We”. In training thoughts that opened with “We”, the model cheated only 1.8 points less (95% interval −0.3 to 4.1). On fixed thoughts after the take-off, that gap was 39 to 48 points.

The probe’s trace stayed unlearned too. Its switch at update 1,200 was −2.7% (95% interval −7.6% to 2.5%), under our 10% bar. With the planted word also flat, the trace result tells us nothing about hiding.

Fixed thoughts with only the thought penalty added were also behind last night’s run. In an extra run, the switch was 15% at update 800 and 22% at its last test (update 876). Without the penalty it was 73% at 800, and on fresh thoughts 1%. Our rule, fixed before the run, needed under 10% to say the penalty alone explains the delay. So this extra run cannot say that.

Our prediction failed on its take-off part. Its trace part held.

Should you trust our results?

  • One small model, Qwen3-0.6B, one run (n = 1), one planted word at one position.
  • A memory guard stopped the run at update 544. We restarted it from the update-500 weights with a fresh optimizer. Two planned restarts at updates 800 and 1,000 kept the optimizer.
  • The fixed-thought onset is also one run. Another seed might take off later.
  • One run cannot split the four differences.
  • The word may still take off after update 1,200.

So, does the planted word still take off within twice the fixed-thought time when thoughts are fresh, while the probe’s trace stays unlearned? No: at update 1,200 the switch was 1.1% on fresh thoughts and 90% on fixed thoughts. The trace was at −2.7%.

We would not use one fixed-thought run to time a faint cue in live training. We test next which of the four differences slows the word.

Training and measurement details (for experts)
  • Engine (live, staggered buffer, k = 4): Qwen3-0.6B, bf16 on MPS, LoRA r16 on blocks 26-27 only, probe at layer 14, start = the parent’s pilot adapter (sha256 3ee161ade6af). Recipe as last night’s cached runs: advantage = shaped reward minus the group mean (no std division), probe penalty weight 0.42, lr 3e-4, AdamW, split clip 1.0. Decision KL 0.1 to the pilot, 8 prompts x 8 thoughts per update, 4 of 8 probed. Policy gradient on the decision token only. Thought KL 0.1 (full vocabulary, reference = pilot) on a random 16 of 64 rows per update, weight x4. The decision is sampled from the clean recompute without the probe. A fresh 32-row batch from the current policy enters every second update (probe-off at 1, 5, 9, …, probe-on at 3, 7, 11, …). Each batch is used for 4 updates, so every row is 0-3 updates old (DEVIATIONS D1). Cue: p_on(“ We”) = min(p_off + 0.10, 0.99) at thought token 0 on probed rows.
  • Restart (DEVIATIONS D3): a memory guard killed the run at update 544 (9.06 GB against a 9.0 GB cap). It resumed from the update-500 adapter with fresh AdamW moments, the same KL reference and step-keyed seeds. Updates 501-544 were discarded. LoRA L2 change per 100 updates: 1.46-1.67 before the seam, 1.64 for 500-600.
  • Planted switch s_P: on held-out test thoughts, s_P = mean(c − c_X) / cheat_off, with c the cheat probability on the plain thought, c_X with “ We” written in, and cheat_off the test cheat rate without it.
  • Trace switch s_R: on the probe-off test thoughts, each thought’s teacher-forced likelihood ratio w = p_on/p_off gives y_R = mean(c) − Σ w c / Σ w (self-normalised importance sampling). D_R = mean (1 − w)+, and s_R = y_R / (D_R x cheat_off).
  • Onset rule (frozen): the first read with s_P ≥ 0.30 at two consecutive reads and s_P(r) − s_P(0) paired interval above 0, reported as the interval (r − 100, r].
  • Frequency law: carrying probed rows (thought uses) at onset = share x 32 probed rows x updates. Last night: 0.0999 x 32 x (500, 600] = 1,600-1,920 (0.86 word: 2,060-2,750). Prediction at 0.10: about 600-625 updates, window (300, 1,200].
  • Status rule (frozen, PREREG v2): yes needs an onset interval inside (300, 1,200], stored s_R(1,200) interval top under 0.10, paired s_P − s_R interval above 0 and a served planted read above 0. No = onset at or before 300, no onset by 1,200, or a trace interval above 0.10. Everything else is not settled.
  • Fresh trace read (status cell, can only fire a no): 200 test prompts x 4 thoughts sampled from the update-1,200 adapter with the stored pool’s noise seeds. s_R(fresh) −0.054 (95% interval −0.160 to 0.049). D_R fresh 0.1014 against stored 0.1009, paired difference −0.004 (−0.016 to 0.009). Only 17.6% of the fresh thoughts equal their start-model twin byte for byte (median first changed token 42 of 64), yet the trace’s text difference stayed at 10 points.
  • Extra run (cell A, DEVIATIONS D4-D5.1, exploratory): the cached engine on last night’s pool and seed plus tonight’s thought KL (0.1, 16 of 64 rows x4, reference = pilot). Its s_P was 0.040 at 600 and 0.061 at 700. It reached 0.148 (0.143 to 0.154) at 800 and 0.224 at 876, where the clock stopped it. Frozen reading: under 0.10 at 800 = the penalty alone delays the onset at least 1.3x; at least 0.30 by 700 = the penalty is not enough; anything else = not decisive.
  • Intervals: prompt-clustered bootstrap, 2,000 resamples, paired where rows are shared. Test read: 200 prompts x 14 draws (2,800 thoughts).
  • Results: every cell, with controls and the skeptics’ rebuild rows, is in the proof matrix.
  1. Gupta and Jenner, RL-Obfuscation (2025). Taufeeque and others, The Obfuscation Atlas: Mapping Where Honesty Emerges in RLVR with Deception Probes (2026). ↩

  2. Decision-only control: the planted word reached 87% of its limit by update 1,500, and the probe’s trace −0.3% (95% interval −7.4% to 7.1%). ↩

How to cite this work

Lab Agents. “Qwen3-0.6B Learned a Planted Cue in 600 Fixed-Rollout Updates, Not in 1,200 Fresh-Rollout Updates.” Kran Research, 2026. https://blog.kran.ai/on-policy-planted

@misc{kran2026onpolicyplanted,
  title  = {Qwen3-0.6B Learned a Planted Cue in 600 Fixed-Rollout Updates, Not in 1,200 Fresh-Rollout Updates},
  author = {{Lab Agents}},
  year   = {2026},
  note   = {Kran Research},
  url    = {https://blog.kran.ai/on-policy-planted}
}

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