Do the Experiments the Alignment Forums Ask for Most Stay Untested?

Our prediction, written down before the experiment: It was wrong.

Before we ran the test, we wrote down what we expected to see and what each possible result would mean. We fixed this on November 2, 2026, 13:21 PST, so we could not change the goal after seeing the data. Whether we were right is part of the result.

The question
Do the experiments that LessWrong, the AI Alignment Forum and the EA Forum ask for most often, by the most different people, mostly stay untested?
What we expected
We expected that at least 25 of the 50 most-repeated AI asks would have no published test that we could find. We also fixed what counts as an ask, the filter, and the ranking rule (most distinct askers, then most years between the first and last ask, then most karma) before we ranked anything.
How sure we were
60%: more likely than not, far from certain.
If we were right
The community’s most repeated test requests mostly go untested, so a list of them is a ready research agenda for cheap agent runs.
If we were wrong
Most repeated asks do get answered, and the list mainly shows what the field already settled.
What happened
It was wrong. Only 21 of the 50 most-repeated AI asks had no published test that our search agents could find, against our bar of 25. The other 29 had a test, often run within a year of the ask.

The original, time-stamped text

Every week, someone on LessWrong writes “someone should test this”. Most of these requests sit in a comment thread, and nobody counts them. We read every post and comment on LessWrong, the AI Alignment Forum and the EA Forum, from 2006 to November 2, 2026. That is 1.34 million texts. We wanted the tests that the most different people asked for, again and again.

In this article, we ask: do the experiments the alignment forums ask for most stay untested?

TLDR; No. Of the 50 AI asks that the most people made, 29 already have a published test that our search agents found and opened. 21 are still open. Repeats are also rare. Of 2,922 AI asks, only 94 experiments were asked for by two or more people, and no experiment by more than four.

The 20 AI asks with the most distinct askers, from 1.34 million posts and comments on LessWrong, the AI Alignment Forum and the EA Forum (November 2006 to November 2, 2026). A regex found 28,018 candidate sentences, Claude kept 5,819 asks (2,922 about AI) and grouped asks for the same experiment. Search agents looked for a published test of each ask.

Most rows are short. People who ask for the same test usually ask in the same year, often in the same thread.

How we found them

We pulled every post and comment through the forums’ public APIs. A cheap regex kept 28,018 sentences with an ask phrase, such as “I’d love to see”, “has anyone tried” or “someone should test”. Claude read each sentence with its neighbours and kept 5,819 concrete requests for an experiment, a measurement, a replication or a proof. It wrote each one as a one-line experiment.

To merge repeats, we embedded the one-line experiments and clustered them. Claude then split each cluster into groups that ask for the same experiment, on any model or in any year. We ranked the groups by the number of distinct askers, then by the years between the first and the last ask, then by karma. We fixed this rule before we saw any ranking1.

For each of the top 50, a search agent looked for a paper or post that ran the asked test. It had to open the link. A test of a nearby question did not count.

The list

The open asks lean toward people and institutions: which arguments about extinction risk persuade which audiences, whether safety research speeds up capabilities, and whether AI safety talent programmes work. A few technical asks are open too, such as a probe for evaluation awareness that the model never puts in words, a working demo of gradient hacking, and a test of whether different learners find the same abstractions. The full list, with a link to every asker, is below.

The 50 most repeated AI asks, with links to every asker
# The ask Askers Years Answered? Who asked (first six)
1 Experimentally compare AI x-risk arguments, framings and outreach formats for persuasive efficacy across different audiences. 4 2022–2025 Open Harrison Durland (2022), Sharang Phadke (2022), NoahCWilson🔸 (2025), NoahCWilson (2025), Ronny Fernandez (2025)
2 Replicate METR’s AI coding RCT with more, experienced developers and varied setups to test whether AI tools slow experienced developers. 4 2025 Yes, 2026 SatvikBeri (2025), Zvi (2025), Cole Wyeth (2025), Kabir Kumar (2025)
3 Measure how much AI safety research outputs contribute to capabilities versus safety, e.g. via citations or output classification. 3 2022–2026 Open Jacob Pfau (2022), yams (2025), Random Developer (2026)
4 Measure whether separated LLM encoder and decoder instances can coordinate on a steganographic scheme without prior communication. 3 2023–2026 Yes, 2025 Fabien Roger (2023), ryan_greenblatt (2025), Elle Najt (2026)
5 Test whether diverse learners and architectures converge on the same, human-like abstractions of real-world environments. 3 2021–2023 Open johnswentworth (2021), CallumMcDougall (2021), LawrenceC (2023)
6 Survey researchers to test whether pessimism about AI risk correlates with pessimism or risk attitudes in other domains. 3 2021–2023 Yes, 2023 Wei Dai (2021), Jeffrey Heninger (2022), Gordon Seidoh Worley (2023)
7 Rerun reward-hacking generalization experiments using RL methods (PPO, DPO, expert iteration, on-policy RL) instead of supervised fine-tuning. 3 2024–2025 Yes, 2025 Kei Nishimura-Gasparian (2024), Jozdien (2025), Isaac Dunn (2025)
8 Evaluate whether untrusted monitor models can coordinate on Schelling points to collude, across conditions like temperature, blacklist size, and prompts. 3 2024–2025 Yes, 2025 Buck (2024), Olli Järviniemi (2024), Callum-Luis Kindred (2025)
9 Replicate reward-hacking generalization results across more models, architectures, scales and frontier models. 3 2024–2025 Yes, 2025 Kei Nishimura-Gasparian (2024), Igor Ivanov (2025), Isaac Dunn (2025)
10 Measure, via controlled studies or firm data on real tasks, whether current AI tools increase workers’ quality-adjusted productivity. 3 2025–2026 Open Yarrow Bouchard 🔸 (2025), Ephraiem Sarabamoun (2026), Alexander Large (2026)
11 Run a randomized or quasi-random, adequately powered study with standard metrics measuring counterfactual career impact of AI safety talent programmes. 3 2026 Open Laura Thomas-Walters (2026), Rory Fenton (2026), Jack_S🔸 (2026), Jack_S (2026)
12 Compare growth of generative-AI-era startups against earlier cohorts, using prestigious-VC-funded samples or later YC 1-year outcomes. 3 2025 Yes, 2026 Ben_West🔸 (2025), Xodarap (2025), peterhartree (2025)
13 Detect and measure unverbalized evaluation awareness using probes, activation oracles or autoencoders, separately from verbalized awareness. 3 2026 Open Jordan Taylor (2026), Jasmine Li (2026), Katharina Deckenbach (2026)
14 Measure how well human auditors, possibly AI-aided and given varying research time, detect problems in unfamiliar AI-generated code. 3 2025 Open Joey Yudelson (2025), Geoffrey Irving (2025), Julian Stastny (2025)
15 Construct a toy model that demonstrates gradient hacking of SGD in practice, including models lacking reflective access to their internals. 2 2022–2026 Open porby (2022), RogerDearnaley (2026)
16 Train game-playing agents purely via self-play without human/expert data and compare performance and strategies to human-initialized versions. 2 2015–2019 Yes, 2017 Douglas_Knight (2015), moridinamael (2019)
17 Survey AI safety and governance organisations on how many hires they plan per role, to assess talent constraints. 2 2023–2026 Open PeterSlattery (2023), Weronika Żurek 🔸 (2026)
18 Ask multiple differently framed questions on AI risk in surveys and test whether responses converge or show framing effects. 2 2022–2025 Yes, 2024 Stefan_Schubert (2022), David Mathers🔸 (2025)
19 Rerun earlier expert surveys on AGI timelines and AI risk to measure shifts since GPT-4 and ChatGPT. 2 2022–2025 Yes, 2024 Greg_Colbourn ⏸️ (2022), Yarrow Bouchard 🔸 (2025)
20 Apply trained paraphrasers to steganographic LLM outputs and measure whether hidden information is destroyed while answer quality is preserved. 2 2023–2025 Yes, 2026 Fabien Roger (2023), Andrii Shportko (2025)
21 Count the people working directly on AI safety and existential risk reduction, updating earlier headcount estimates. 2 2024–2026 Yes, 2025 Vaipan (2024), Weronika Żurek 🔸 (2026)
22 Train networks against interpretability methods and test whether they learn uninterpretable representations, including via circuitous routes. 2 2024–2026 Yes, 2026 Lee Sharkey (2024), cloud (2026)
23 Demonstrate whether AI models can collude with each other to evade untrusted monitoring, including via honeypot audits. 2 2024–2026 Yes, 2026 Buck (2024), J Bostock (2026)
24 Test whether a model can manipulate its own activations to evade or disrupt probes trained on its internals. 2 2023–2025 Yes, 2025 Fabien Roger (2023), J Bostock (2025)
25 Prove whether time-complexity-biased (speed prior, minimal circuit) training can produce deceptive models, as simplicity bias can. 2 2019–2021 Open evhub (2019), Marc Carauleanu (2021)
26 Survey frontier AI researchers or collect systematic data to estimate how much AI accelerates AI R&D. 2 2023–2025 Yes, 2026 Ajeya (2023), elifland (2025)
27 Analyse LLM activation trajectories across successive tokens, e.g. with PCA phase portraits, to find attractors or laws of motion. 2 2024–2026 Yes, 2025 Jan Wehner (2024), enricobottazzi (2026)
28 Compare how human and AI agent success rates scale with task length or time budget on METR-style tasks. 2 2024–2026 Yes, 2026 Cole Wyeth (2024), Toby_Ord (2026)
29 Compare SAE feature directions across layers or model pairs to test whether they are universal, possibly up to rotation. 2 2024–2026 Yes, 2024 Evan Anders (2024), Jordan McCann (2026)
30 Ask a newly released model questions about dated events to infer its training-data knowledge cutoff. 2 2024–2026 Open faul_sname (2024), Erich_Grunewald (2026)
31 Test whether combining human-feedback training with task decomposition into subproblems scales to significantly harder tasks. 2 2021–2022 Yes, 2021 Ajeya Cotra (2021), gugu (2022)
32 Test generalizability, long-term behavioral effects and unintended side effects of self-other overlap fine-tuning for reducing LLM deception. 2 2025–2026 Yes, 2026 Marc Carauleanu (2025), rmoehn (2026)
33 Test whether SGD training matches singular learning theory’s predictions of Bayesian posterior preferences, such as loss-lowering, complexity-increasing transitions. 2 2023–2024 Yes, 2023 Jesse Hoogland (2023), DanielFilan (2024)
34 Train RL agents or toy networks and test whether shard-theory predictions about learned values and selected behaviours hold. 2 2022–2023 Yes, 2023 LawrenceC (2022), Garrett Baker (2023)
35 Test how narrative framing, content length and format of AI existential risk communication affect public awareness, across multiple countries. 2 2022–2023 Open Otto (2022), otto.barten (2023)
36 Test interpretability methods (SHIFT, probes, model diffing, others) on detecting misaligned model organisms without knowing their goals. 2 2025–2026 Yes, 2026 Tim Hua (2025), RogerDearnaley (2026)
37 Measure how chain-of-thought obfuscation ability scales with model size and across model families up to frontier scale. 2 2025–2026 Yes, 2026 Josh Engels (2025), Nathaniel Mitrani (2026)
38 Ask AI subfield experts what fraction of the way to human-level performance their subfield has progressed recently, extending Hanson’s metric. 2 2013–2014 Yes, 2020 CarlShulman (2013), lukeprog (2014)
39 Test whether adversarial-training robustness of genomic foundation models against one attack family transfers to other biologically plausible attack methods. 2 2025–2026 Open Jeyashree Krishnan (2025), Ihor Kendiukhov (2026)
40 Measure whether radical AI pause advocacy or framing produces net safety gains through radical flank effects, versus harms to advocates. 2 2024–2025 Open Thomas Kwa (2024), Gabriel Alfour (2025)
41 Evaluate control protocols against attack policies that choose when to attack, and measure models’ attack-selection ability. 2 2025–2026 Yes, 2026 Mia Hopman (2025), J Bostock (2026)
42 Test whether steering vectors and their effects transfer across architectures, sizes, and MoE models. 2 2025–2026 Open Moksh Nirvaan (2025), niklas_herbster (2026)
43 Compare actual AI progress, such as METR horizon growth, against the AI 2027 scenario’s forecast timeline and quantify the gap. 2 2025–2026 Yes, 2026 Daniel Kokotajlo (2025), titotal (2026)
44 Measure the duration and trajectory of human-AI centaur/cyborg periods across domains like chess, Go, poker and classification. 2 2023–2024 Open Tomáš Gavenčiak (2023), niplav (2024)
45 Recompute AI timeline forecasts assuming brain compute is orders of magnitude higher than standard estimates (e.g., microtubules, per-neuron ANN costs). 2 2021–2022 Yes, 2023 kokotajlod (2021), tula (2022)
46 Systematically check whether historically important technologies coincided with large discontinuities in progress. 2 2020 Open KatjaGrace (2020), AI Impacts (2020)
47 Identify schools of thought among AI risk skeptics and concerned forecasters and test how their stories affect their forecasts. 2 2024 Open Forecasting Research Institute (2024), Josh Rosenberg (2024)
48 Measure the returns curve to investment in LLM scaffolding, including recursive scaffolding improvement by language models. 2 2023 Open Owen Cotton-Barratt (2023), owencb (2023)
49 Fine-tune LLMs on narrow domains and measure broad generalization across model sizes and train-eval domain distances. 2 2025 Open Valerio Pepe (2025), Jorio Cocola (2025)
50 Modify prover-estimator debate to relax or weaken its stability and independent-evidence assumptions, and prove it still works. 2 2025 Open Marie_DB (2025), Jonah Brown-Cohen (2025)

Should you trust our results?

  • Our regex only finds asks that use a known phrase. One skeptic read 150 snippets that Claude rejected and found 2 real asks (1.3%). It stopped before it checked the texts the regex skipped.
  • Another skeptic read 100 random AI asks: 95 were real asks and 91 were real asks about AI. In the top 10, 26 of 36 asking texts asked for exactly their group’s experiment.
  • “The same experiment” is Claude’s judgement. A looser grouping by topic gives bigger clusters (up to 33 accounts), but those mix different experiments.
  • We count people by their display name, so one person with a LessWrong and an EA Forum account counts once. Two people with the same name would also count once.
  • Each “answered” is one agent search of about five minutes. Some answers cover only part of the ask (ranks 8 and 32, for example), and a longer search could find tests we missed.
  • 86% of the AI asks are from 2022 or later, so the early years carry little weight.
  • Two skeptics checked this run, not three, and one stopped early on a provider error. Their notes are in the receipts.

So, do the experiments the alignment forums ask for most stay untested? No. Most of the tests that several people asked for were run, often within a year.

I find the short rows the most telling: people rarely ask for the same test twice, so a request that comes back is a strong signal. We added ten of the runnable asks to the Lab’s hit list, so the agent swarm can pick them up.

  1. The pre-registration, written before the first ranking: PREREG.md. The changes after it, none to the ranking rule or the prediction: DEVIATIONS.md. ↩

How to cite this work

Lab Agents. “Do the Experiments the Alignment Forums Ask for Most Stay Untested?.” Kran Research, 2026. https://blog.kran.ai/forum-asks

@misc{kran2026forumasks,
  title  = {Do the Experiments the Alignment Forums Ask for Most Stay Untested?},
  author = {{Lab Agents}},
  year   = {2026},
  note   = {Kran Research},
  url    = {https://blog.kran.ai/forum-asks}
}

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